Tag: Inflation Impact

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic disruptions, the Indian market has embarked on a remarkable recovery journey. This article delves into the nature of this resurgence, explores investor behavior, and examines the investment channels currently favored by Indian participants. A Post-Pandemic Bull Run The Indian market has witnessed a sustained uptrend since the second quarter of FY2022, marking a clear departure from the initial pandemic-induced downturn. This bull run, lasting for at least three years, signifies a robust recovery and renewed investor confidence. Investor Behavior: Responding to the Uptrend The market’s positive trajectory has influenced investor behavior. We’ve observed a surge in investor activity, with individuals actively seeking investment opportunities to capitalize on the growth potential. This shift reflects a growing risk appetite and a willingness to participate in the market’s upswing. Market Performance: Year Opening Closing %antage   2023-24 58,991.52 73,651.35 24.85 2022-23 58,568.51 58,991.52 0.72 2021-22 49,509.15 58,568.51 18.30 2021-22: This year marked a strong rebound for the Indian stock market after the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. It delivered a return of 18.30%, indicating a significant bull run. 2022-23: The market performance in this year was more subdued compared to the previous year. It witnessed a flat return of around 0.7%, suggesting a period of consolidation or slight correction. 2023-24: The market regained momentum in this year, delivering a robust return of 24.85%. This signifies a continuation of the bull run that began in 2021-22. FY 2021-22 The year after covid, FY 2021-22 the following the gains were delivered by the market  Index Opening Closing Return %  Sensex 49,509.15 58,568.51 18.30 Nifty 50 14,690.70 17,102.55 16.42 Nifty Bank 33,303.90 36,373.60 9.22 Nifty Midcap 100 23,693.15 29,692.30 25.32 Nifty Small cap 100 8,113.15 10,436.25 28.63 Broader Market Performance It’s important to consider how the broader market performed beyond just the headline index. While you mentioned a point-to-point return, including specific details (e.g., percentage increase) would offer a more complete picture. Did all segments outperform the previous year, or were there any variations? Did smaller or mid-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks, indicating broader market participation? Government Stimulus and Inflation Injections of money into the economy by governments worldwide likely played a significant role in the stock market’s initial rebound after the pandemic. However, such a stimulus can also contribute to inflation if not carefully managed. The observation about inflation not being felt in 2020-21 but rising in 2021-22 aligns with this notion. The effects of stimulus programs often take time to manifest, and the rising US inflation by year-end 2021 (at 8.5%) suggests a potential consequence of the earlier measures.   The article above states how the US Fed reserve helped to create cash and help the country from going into recession  (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fed-response-to-covid19/). Which was invariably linked to high inflation in the countries. But there were many reasons why the inflation increased in the economy , As discussed the world over we are discussing a few reasons which caused the inflation  All-in money printing totaled $13 trillion: $5.2 for COVID + $4.5 for quantitative easing + $3 for infrastructure. The money supply normally grows about 7% per year but quantitative easing (QE) of more than $4 trillion has increased money supply by 14% per year over the past decade. The $5 trillion in COVID relief increases the money supply by 27% and does so very quickly – the floodgates are open. Quantitative Easing did not bring inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), so that experiment has been declared a success, but the reality is that QE did inflate stock and bond prices, so there was inflation but not in the usual metric. By contrast, much of the COVID relief money will go directly into the hands of the consumer, so CPI will increase. Supply Side bans imposed on China by the US on manufacturing of Semiconductor , led to rising commodity prices, while at the same time caused a serious disruption of the world’s supply chain. There were the shipping snarls and bottleneck in global supply chain industry caused by Covid-19, worker shortages , the labor market tightened during 2021 and 2022, core inflation rose as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment increased,  The spikes in energy and food prices caused by the invasion of Ukraine Russia  The multiple reasons stated above lead to inflation. Inflation started increasing after the first quarter of the financial year in the world. First of all it was thought to be transient in nature due to shipping bottlenecks which were created , towards the latter part of the year the other issues also caught up.  Towards the end of this year the inflation has reached its highest levels and even the major conflict dented the sentiments which caused markets to close at level lower in the last few months. FII Equity inflow  But we see that during the year the FII were net sellers throughout the year, and toward the end of the year the maximum outflow happened.  The selling pressure further intensified as the oil prices increased towards the year end as war signals intensified. So even with the high selling from FII, the DII continued buying throughout. And the market was supported by the heavy DII and retail buying.  So the question that we need to answer in context of Indian market for the year 2021-22  Why did FII were net sellers in the Indian Market ?  One reason was tapering in the US market – It was only in the November 2021 meeting that the Fed took a decision and began reducing the monthly pace of its Treasury purchases by $10 billion and its MBS purchases by $5 billion in November and December. The Fed doubled the pace of tapering at its December 2021 meeting, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed in January 2022 that the plan is to end asset purchases in early March 2022. The Fed has made clear that tapering will precede any increase in its target for short-term interest